Saturday, September 02, 2006

Sector Watch

Although every blogger has their opinions of what the markets will do, here is what I think:

Nasdaq



The nasdaq, along with the dow and S&P, managed a very low volume rise in August. With September being historically the worst month, I think the sellers will come back with full force. I expect the nasdaq to at least double bottom, if not break that bottom and go lower.

Crude oil



Crude oil recently hit its bottom trendline. Historically, Gold and oil has done well in September. With the fundamentals unchanged (demand still exceeding supply), I fully expect crude oil to continue it's uptrend.

Gold



Gold is a special commodity, in that it is more affected by psychology than by fundamentals. Unlike other commodities, which depend on supply and demand, gold is dependent on the dilution of paper currency, and on whether the people are willing to value gold as money. Right now, I believe people do think of gold as money, and thus, it will rise long term. Having said that, on the short term, I wouldn't be surprised if gold tries to double bottom (hit 600 or lower), before building a stronger base and moving upwards.

Copper



Copper is one of my favorite commodities, since the demand is so strong, that copper didn't drop that much despite all the "speculators" bailing on it. (Speculators bailed on all commodity stocks in May). Even though copper may retest $3.00 in the short/medium term, over the long term, I expect copper to remain a leader and to make new highs as the commodities bull market continues.

Cameco Corporation (CCJ)



Cameco is my favorite commodities stock, because uranium is the only commodity that never goes down. Contract prices of uranium is controlled by a small group of people. With uranium demand exceeding supply by 100%, uranium prices will continue to go up, making uranium companies more and more valuble. Cameco has already consolidated very strongly since the perceived "bubble" that occured in May. I think another breakout is imminent, and Cameco will rise to 55-60 dollars US in the short/medium term.

Note:

Other stocks I like include Freeport Mcmoran Copper (FCX) , which is my favorite copper stock since Phelps Dodge Corp (PD) decided to diversify and Yamana Gold (AUY), which is the best mid tier gold growth stock since Glamis Gold Ltd (GLG) was bought by Goldcorp Inc .

16 Comments:

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

17th Apr 2008

Market Outlook
Markets are likely to open with a gap up and expecting some correction in later part of session.

If 4900 is sustained for two consecutive closings we can see 5140 levels.



Sensex : 16244 Support : 15900/15600 Resistance : 16480/16700

Nifty : 4887 Support : 4820/4740 Resistance : 4950/5021



Buy Apr fut-Nifty above 4890 target 4940/4990 Sl 4840

Buy Apr fut-Renuka above 107 target 111/118 Sl 104

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Anonymous Payday Bank said...

Even Cameco is my favorite and one of the leading producer of uranium and its share price has been hammered on the question marks that have risen over the nuclear industry.

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Anonymous stock tips said...

Get ready for some early morning weakness amid a mix of domestic and overseas sentiments. Asian markets have fallen after concerns about Spain’s worsening fiscal health and fresh trouble for Greece sent US and European stocks into a deep pit on Friday.

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Anonymous Moneycontrol said...

The Sensex closed at 21164.52, up 130.55 points over its previous close, and just 54 points away from making a new peak. The Nifty gained 47.45 points to close at 6299.55.


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