Monday, August 22, 2005

Bought September 40 EBAY Put @ 1.5

I don't trust the market strength, and I still think the markets will fall through September. I shorted EBAY because the internet sector has been by far the weakest in the recent weeks, and EBAY is probably one of the weakest stocks in that sector. Also, there are signs that EBAY is being killed in China, and without the growth from that country, EBAY should be a lot lower. My target for EBAY is 35.

Tuesday, August 16, 2005

Markets nasty

The end of August and September are notoriously the worst time for the markets, and I don't see anything different this year. There are just too many factors favoring a lower market. Also, I still subscribe to my theory that the saudis are selling, and that is probably why we are getting these major selloffs on major stocks at the end of the day. For this reason, I have sold my QCOM position.

Thursday, August 11, 2005

Long term investments

As my FDG.UN looks poised to be called out :( I will be looking for another "long term" investment. I may buy FDG.UN again, but I really want to get it around 120. I am also looking at CIBC (CM), because of the recent price correction it experienced lately. My buy target for CIBC is 60.

Unlike American banks, I like Canadian banks a lot. I seriously think you can buy a Canadian bank and hold it forever. The reason is because the Canadian economy will be one of the best performing economies in the years to come. Not only does Canada have lots of resources, but the oil sands are also the second largest oil reserves in the world (next to Saudi Arabia). When the oil sands finally come into development, a lot of money and jobs will flow into Canada, which will boost the economy. This, along with Canada's good reputation, will attract a lot more people to live in Canada. Thus, with the population boom, more people will use the banks, resulting in a sustained growth for the Candadian banks.

Reversal?



Check out the action at the end of the day for the 7 previous days. For all 7 days (besides today), we saw selloffs at the very last hour. However, today, we saw a massive rally leading to the closing bell. I see this as a reversal of the markets, because the suppressor is gone (despite the DELL results).

Anyways, at the last hour, I bought an option call position in Qualcomm. I don't know if this is the best vehicle to ride, but it should do well.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

From the Kirk Report

I found an interesting link from the Kirk Report:

Saudis to retrieve $360 billion abroad

Could this be responsible for the plunge in the markets? If this is true, then the markets still have a long way to fall.

Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Sold PD Aug 110 call @ 0.95

Sold it at the worst time possible, but frankly, I didn't want to think about it anymore. The market looks pretty weak at this point. I may initiate short positions, but because shorting is a negative sum game (since the market has a tendency to go up), I may just sit and not do much.

Thursday, August 04, 2005

Bought PD August 110 call @ 2.95

I hope dttong is right with his PD call :) After such a huge runup, it should at least challenge those previous highs, so entering here is pretty safe.

On another note, what a relief to see Fording Coal make a late day reversal today. I wrote a Aug 120 covered call on it. I would really like to keep it because I think it is an excellent long term holding, so I hope it falls below 120 before 3rd Friday of August.

Sold EBAY 42.5 call @ 2.50

Wow, another breakeven trade. I think my timing is out of sync, because my last few trades have not been that good. But because the markets are so overbought, I would be scared if I kept on holding on to this stock.

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Commentary: Copper



I like copper and commodities in general. Once the general markets top out, I think commodities will continue to go higher. I wouldn't be surprised of copper surges to 2.00

Commentary: Gold



Gold is currently in a contracting triangle. Once that is done, I fully expect gold to breakout on the upside.

Commentary: Oil



Today showed a sharp reversal. I am still bullish on oil in the medium term. I think oil will reach 77 before making an "intermediate top", but in the short term, I will be looking for oil to retreat to 57.

Commentary: Nasdaq



We may get a blow over top, but the Nasdaq rally is coming to an end. After that, I would expect a 2-3 month consolidation, with a downward target of approx. 2000.

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

SNDA and SINA a good buy before earnings?

NTES reported blowout earnings today, mainly due to online gaming revenues. This bodes excellent news for the other Chinese portals, especially SNDA. However, I think all of the Chinese internet stocks will report excellent results. This is because the NTES earnings indicate that a lot more Chinese people are flocking to the internet. Due to the laws of statistics, the number of new people using each internet site is proportional to the number of people who were originally using the internet site. What this means is that if NTES has a revenue increase of 100%+, all of its competitors should also post similar results.

SINA reports earnings on Wednesday, August 3rd, after the bell. SNDA reports earnings on Tuesday, August 9th, after the bell.

Bought EBAY Aug 42.5 call @ 2.40

After taking a look at PD this morning, I wish I took a vacation yesterday. What a blowout today. I guess people are finally coming to their senses and buying cheap commodity stocks instead of assuming that the cycle is over.

But is buying EBAY a good move? I'm a bit late to the party, but after analyzing the nasdaq, it seems like it could easily move to over 2250 over the next few days. I would post a chart, but I'm too tired during the morning.

Monday, August 01, 2005

Sold PD August 105 call @ 4.60

PD has been showing a lot of "railway tracks" in the daily graph, plus it double topped its previous high. Thus, there is very little chance that PD can make a new high anytime soon, and a pullback below 106 seems more probable.

Report Card: July 2005

















Stock/Option Quantity Price Paid Price Sold Profit/Loss
AER.UN 100 10.00 11.82 155.01 CDN
CCO Jul 52 Call 10 3.50 6.00 2400.02 CDN
CCO Aug 54 Call 10 2.80 4.50 1607.02 CDN
CCO Aug 56 Call 10 3.75 4.20 353.02 CDN
GLG 400 18.68 19.75 374.02 CDN
GLG Jul 20 Call -4 0 0.65 228.61 CDN
AAPL Aug 40 Put 10 3.50 3.10 (492.11) USD
PD Aug 100 Call 8 4.50 7.70 2464.96 USD
DNA Aug 85 Call 6 5.30 4.00 (861.69) USD
AAPL Aug 42.5 Call 10 2.20 2.30 15.92 USD
KBH Aug 80 Call 10 3.00 3.80 711.86 USD
TOTAL --- --- --- 7324.43 CDN


*Note: The US/CDN conversion rate is 1.20
**Note: Profit/Loss includes all commissions paid