Saturday, June 25, 2005

Gold: Short term gain, long term pain?



The chart on the top is the XAU, which is an index of gold stocks. The chart on the bottom is the metal gold. Notice that the stocks have made signficantly lower highs on the new highs gold has made. Also, given the fact that gold's performance has been extremely disappointing compared with other commodities, I seriously doubt that gold and gold stocks will break out into the next leg of the bull market any time soon.

However, over the next few months, I do expect gold to go up, since people are starting to become too bullish on the US dollar despite its horrible fundamentals. But after that, gold should resume its consolidation.

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