Thursday, June 30, 2005

CCO


I bought a CCO July 52 Call for 3.50. Cameco has been performing well, and it seems poised to break above the ascending triangle. I don't usually like buying options on the Canadian exchange, because it is not very liquid. As a result, I paid a huge premium for this option, which immediately handicaps me. This is probably a stupid move, but I made so much money off these options in the last run, that I want to come back for more.

Sold KBH July 70 Call @ 7.00

Reason for sale: Double top. It could currently be in an ascending triangle, but because the markets have been very up and down lately, with a downward bias, I don't mind taking my profits now and finding a better opportunity.

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

earth.google.com




Check out the abnormal volume at the end of the day for the past 3 days. Google is the most manipulated stock in the world, and they have been hyped and pumped like there's no tomorrow. But it experienced a nasty reversal today (nasty because it went down big while the markets went up during the same time). I would just stay away from this stock altogether, because you can't beat the manipulators.

But earth.google.com is awesome.

Monday, June 27, 2005

Bought Call on KB Homes




I just bought a July 70 Call on KBH for 4.70. Yes, I know real estate is in a bubble, and I know housing prices are insane right now, but it doesn't mean it can't go higher :)

I was deciding between four stocks today: GOOG (nasdaq), CCO (tsx), TLM (tsx), and KBH (nyse). I believe all four of these stocks will go up a lot in the short/medium term. However, the reason why I chose KBH is because it bounced off major support, it's cheap based on the amount of money they make, and I have a 80 dollar target on it on the short term.

Sold AAPL put

Sold July 40 AAPL put at 3.00.

Analysis:

1. Reason for sale was because it bounced too heavily off the bottom resistance line
2. Outperformed too heavily after opening for the day
3. Was not a good trade; did not react quickly enough (should have sold earlier in the morning when there was signs that it was a clear outperformer. Also, the risk/reward ratio did not justify the trade, because the potential gain was too little

Conclusion:

1. That's the reason why I do not like trading stocks which are in a see saw battle between shorts and longs. I like buying stocks that are in a clear uptrend or shorting stocks that are in a clear downtrend. I will be looking for an entry point into an oil stock.

Saturday, June 25, 2005

Gold: Short term gain, long term pain?



The chart on the top is the XAU, which is an index of gold stocks. The chart on the bottom is the metal gold. Notice that the stocks have made signficantly lower highs on the new highs gold has made. Also, given the fact that gold's performance has been extremely disappointing compared with other commodities, I seriously doubt that gold and gold stocks will break out into the next leg of the bull market any time soon.

However, over the next few months, I do expect gold to go up, since people are starting to become too bullish on the US dollar despite its horrible fundamentals. But after that, gold should resume its consolidation.

Oil's parabolic rise?


Oil has been one of the best performing sectors over the past 5 years. Recently, it has experienced an accelerated rise, as worries over a growing global demand and a shrinking supply has been its main driver. Although oil has been hot, the stocks are still relatively cheap, meaning wallstreet still expects oil to fall back to the 40 dollar range. Since wallstreet is usually wrong, and since oil seems to be in a parablic rise, I wouldn't be surprised to see oil break the 70 dollar barrier before topping.

I would look for oil to drop back to the 55 dollar range before buying.

Friday, June 24, 2005

Aeroplan IPO!

I was given 100 units of the aeroplan IPO (AER.UN). It shot up 18% on the first day of trading, so I'm happy.

I just bought a put for Apple with strike @ 40 and expiration @ July for 2.4. WIth apple hitting upper resistance, and nasdaq looking bearish, I think this is a good play.

Thursday, June 23, 2005

Big drop coming?



The markets have been really resilient recently despite all the bad news. But with today's breakdown, it looks like the bulls were just stubbornly holding on to the support level. Their efforts will probably end up in vain, as a falling market will force them to trim down their bloated levels of stock holding, resulting in a much steeper crash.

I'm looking for a retracement back to the recent lows.

Saturday, June 18, 2005


With Cameco consolidating near its highs after a strong runup, it seems like the consolidation will be short. Was the recent breakout through the triangle the beginning of a new wave up? I'll be looking for a drop back to the 50-52 range before entering Posted by Hello

Posted by Hello
PLMO has been outperforming the nasdaq during the recent run up. With the nasdaq in a healthy consolidation, and with PLMO making a new high before a nasdaq breakout, PLMO seems poised to continue its next leg up, reaching a possible target of 36 within 2 months Posted by Hello